CRE deal volume outpaces forecasts across retail, industrial, and office sectors.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and tight lending conditions, the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market is showing unexpected strength. According to Bisnow’s July 24th report, second-quarter CRE sales rose nearly 18% year-over-year, outpacing analysts’ expectations and signaling renewed momentum in the market.
The article highlights new data from JPMorgan and MSCI Real Assets, noting that:
- Retail sales rose 37.4%
- Industrial sales climbed 15%
- Office transactions increased 11.5%
Although overall June sales ($38B) were down compared to the same month last year, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Excluding entity-level deals such as REIT and portfolio acquisitions, individual property transactions actually increased by 6%, a signal that core property markets are stabilizing.
Cap rates also reflect tightening market conditions, with average rates dropping 25 basis points to 6.5% across sectors. Notably, central business district (CBD) office sales—a segment hit hard by pandemic-era disruptions—saw renewed investor interest, with Q1 CBD office volume up 28% year-over-year, according to Cushman & Wakefield.
What This Means for Investors and Owners
The report aligns with what we’re seeing on the ground: a slow but steady return of investor confidence, particularly in markets and asset classes where supply is constrained and fundamentals are improving.
David Steinbach, Global CIO at Hines, summed it up in the firm’s midyear outlook:
Real estate is emerging as one of the few places where long-term capital could find income, resilience, and strong relative value.
With new development activity declining and transaction volume picking up, Vista Commercial Advisors believes the back half of 2025 could bring a rare window of opportunity—especially in well-located retail centers, industrial assets, and repositioned Class A office properties.
Navigating What’s Next
At Vista, we’re advising clients on how to position themselves in a tightening yet opportunity-rich market. Whether you’re exploring acquisitions, reviewing asset strategy, or considering a sale, we’re here to provide clarity and direction in a dynamic CRE landscape.
Ready to talk strategy? Contact us to start a conversation.
From U.S. Commercial Property Deals Surge Past Forecasts, Surprising Analysts, july 24, 2025 | 6:47 p.m. ET Jarred Schenke, Atlanta